Let's take a look at the situation of the parties. The Cartel has lost one million votes; it had 2.5 million for and 4.5 million against it. This main support of Bismarck's parliamentary power is now shattered, and all the King's horses and all the King's men cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again.* There are only two parties available to form a government majority: the Catholics (the Center) and the German Radical Party. Even though the latter have a fervent wish to form a new cartel, they cannot do this – at least for the time being – with the Conservatives but only with the National Liberals, and that will not yield a majority. And what about the Center? Bismarck is counting on it, and the Catholic Junkers in this party are just burning with desire to join forces with the old Prussian Junkers. The only raison d'être of the Center, however, is: hatred of Prussia. Now you go and try to form a Prussian government party out of that! As soon as the Center even shows the slightest tendency in this direction, the Catholic farming community – the Center's main strength – will break away, while we have taken over the 100,000 votes that the Center lost in the Catholic cities, for example, in Munich, Cologne, Mainz, etc. (in comparison to 1887).
As a result, this Reichstag is not viable. But Bismarck's last resort, dissolving the parliament, will hardly help him. Since confidence in the stability of the present order is gone, the decisive factor now is the dissatisfaction with heavy taxes and the steadily rising cost of living. This is a direct consequence of financial and economic policy over the last eleven years, and with it Bismarck has driven the people into our arms. And the German Michel is rising up against this policy. Thus the next Reichstag will probably look even worse.
This will happen, unless, of course, Bismarck and his master provoke unrest and fighting before we get too strong – on that score they will always agree – and crush us, and subsequently change the constitution. Apparently they are drifting towards that solution, and that constitutes the main threat that has to be averted. Our people, as you have seen, are maintaining a wonderful discipline; but we may be forced to take up the fight before we are fully prepared for it – and therein lies the danger. If it comes to that, however, other factors will be favorable to us.
Nim's dinner bell is sounding – so good-bye for today – [ . . . ].
En attendant, vive la révolution allemande!
Yours always, F.E.
* This phrase appeared in English in the original – ed.
Source: Friedrich Engels to Laura Lafargue, in Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Werke [Works], vol. 37. Berlin, 1967, pp. 359-61.
Original German text reprinted in Wilfried Loth, Das Kaiserreich. Obrigkeitsstaat und politische Mobilisierung [The Kaiserreich. Authoritarian State and Political Mobilization]. Munich: Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, 1996, pp. 189-91.
Translation: Erwin Fink
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